Israel: Demography 2012-2030: On the way to a religious state

This is the fifth edition of the series Israel: Demography. Some editions have appeared in English and German, and were sold out immediately on publication.

Since the last edition, Israel: 2007-2020, Demography and Density, 2007, every citizen of Israel has personally felt the realization of the authors’ warning that Israel is becoming most crowded state, a state descending to the Third World, a state that is abandoned by its robust youth, and a state to which Jewish youth hardly returns.

The lack of governance has become the norm, and the challenges are enormous. This time the authors add new challenges to consider. As 2030 approaches, the Arabs of Israel are coming to the end of their era of high natural increase (which was among the highest in world), but in Israel’s Jewish Ultra-Orthodox population, and to a large extent its national-religious population too, high natural increase continues (contrary to general models that link high living standard to decline in childbirth). Israel is becoming religious – mainly Ultra-Orthodox, but not only. Another disturbing process is taking shape: the young Jewish population is streaming to Tel Aviv State, abandoning the periphery, which is becoming poor, neglected and open for anarchy due to the lack of governance.

Within 20 years or less Israel must prepare for gloomy economic-social-military-environmental outcomes, unlike anything the state has been accustomed to in the past. One can point to the looming disaster of the mass flight of secular Jews from Israel. One can point to the opposite model: reinforcement in national cohesion. The solutions require a bold and dynamic approach as well.